Okay well it may not be “Five” reasons, it may be more. I’m sure most Niner fans have read the article from Real Football 365 recently titled: Five reasons the 49ers will not be .500 in ‘06. The article didn’t seem to sit to well with Niner fans, not because we have Super Bowl aspirations, but because the reasons the writer gave were pure crap. A couple of our staff writers decided to counter Mr. Krupka’s article. Here is what Vini Chopra and Matt Gagnon had to say:

Vini Chopra
I don’t claim to be a homer fan of the 49ers by any means. If any of the readers have seen some of my posts and previous articles I tend to point out the negatives and ride the wave of caution when speaking about this developing team. However, every once in a while a so-called sports writer comes along that is so amateurish in his/her allegations that one must wonder if this said person watches the game of football at all. Eric Krupka, I hate to do this to you, but I read your recent article about five reasons why the 49ers will not finish over .500, and I had a laugh.

First, let me be clear. I do not, even for a moment, believe that the San Francisco 49ers will finish over .500 (better than 8-8) in the 2006 season. At least not in any confident sense. I believe that a 6-10 finish is more likely. But there are reasons for making claims to these kinds of predictions that follow streams of logic and demonstrate that one pays attention to the NFL. Krupka’s reasoning constantly falls somewhere between lofty and absurd. Here are a few examples:

However, the team remains a couple of years away from jumping from the pits of damnation to the upper stretches of the NFL stratosphere. But enough with the talk.

Let’s start here. The team is a COUPLE YEARS away from “jumping from the pits of damnation” ? I do not know what kind of patience Mr. Krupka displays, but a couple years is a long period of time. It typically takes a team 3 years to rebuild, and cycles in the NFL come in a 3 year dose unless you are the Patriots. Nolan began to rebuild this team in 2005 with the selection of Alex Smith. In 2006 we have made further strides by acquiring the likes of Vernon Davis, Manny Lawson, and Antonio Bryant. The fact is that the 49ers do not have a “couple years” to crawl out of the depths of mediocrity. They have, at most, another two years and a lot of free salary cap to ensure that by 2007 they are competing for something greater than just .500. So a couple years? I don’t think so. Not unless a new regime takes over.

Some seem to view this as a strength of the team. Personally, I don’t see how that is justified. Frank Gore’s a fantastic back, when healthy. The problem is, very rarely is he healthy. Gore is about as durable as a piece of paper. He’s torn both ACL’s and injured both shoulders.

Here Krupka ruminates on the uncertainty of the running back position, and that of Frank Gore. However, fans must ask themselves what terminology like “Gore is about as durable as a piece of paper” means, and if this is true to any extent. When did Gore’s ACL problem ever manifest itself in the NFL? So far it has not. In fact, that was a great concern for the 49ers going into the 2005 season as Gore was in the middle of his recovery from his ACL. It did not interfere in the 2005 at all though, at least not in any significant way. This is not to say that Gore will never tear his ACL again or have knee problems, but when you assert an injury that has not plagued Gore in his NFL career thus far then how does that make Gore a piece of paper? Secondly, shoulder injuries and all, Gore still managed to lead the 49ers in rushing last season. They have since been surgically repaired, and although he missed practice time, he has not missed any gametime thus far. So again, how is he as durable as a piece of paper?

Tough Division - Unfortunately for the 49ers, they reside in what should be an extremely competitive NFC West. The reigning NFC champion Seattle Seahawks should be as strong as ever.

Okay Eric, stop here. Tough division? I agree that the NFC West has improved as both the Rams and Cardinals have made strides to better themselves. However, outside of the Seahawks, which other team posted a winning record in this division last year? Speaking of the Cardinals, didn’t everyone say the same thing about them last year? Yes, they’ve signed Edgerrin James and drafted Matt Leinart, but how is that defense looking? As for the Rams, I agree that they’ve improved and should be much more competitive than last year’s incarnation. But they still have questions, such as whether or not aging free agents like La’Roi Glover will play at the level that the Rams desperately need to meet the expectations of their former glory. But Mr. Krupka’s most comedic allegation comes with the boasting of the Seahawks an being “better than ever.” The Seahawks signed Julian Peterson. Their defense improved somewhat. But they lost a large chunk of their attack when they Steve Hutchinson put on a Vikings jersey. That run to the left that Shaun Alexander rode behind last year, like a gladiator on his chariot, might have a wheel or two loose this season. Not to mention, what has the success rate of teams that lose the Super Bowl been like for the following season recently?

Hey, I’m not trying to give Eric a bad time here. He does make some good observations, such as the development of Alex Smith and inexperience being obstacles to finishing below .500. In fact, I think that development and potential as opposed to assertive knowledge will be the main reason why our team will shine at times this season, but still lose games here and there. Fans should still prepare to watch an up and coming team with some flair this season. Win or lose, it will be how the 49ers play the game this season. And because I don’t have the patience of Eric Krupka, I sure hope that the team starts clicking before a couple of years.

Matt Gagnon

Eric Krupka - 4.) Running backs - Some seem to view this as a strength of the team. Personally, I don’t see how that is justified. Frank Gore’s a fantastic back, when healthy. The problem is, very rarely is he healthy. Gore is about as durable as a piece of paper….

Let me tell you why everyone but you seems to think the running back position is one of strength for this team.

-Frank Gore. Coming off of surgery on BOTH KNEES, and a long layoff from football, he showed the strength, speed and explosiveness of the ELITE backs in the game, and his knees looked fine (his injuries were minor shoulder injuries). He pounded the hole, he showed breakaway speed, and showed true elusiveness. What proves it the most? Gore lead ALL rookies (yes, that’s right ALL rookies) in YPC (4.8) behind one of the most atrocious offensive lines in recent NFL history. If that alone doesn’t give you hope for his play this year, then I say you aren’t really following football - especially given how much the line is improved this year. And what the hell does “nees to prove he can make it through a 16 game season” mean? He’s been in the league ONE YEAR. To listen to this “analysis” you’d think he’s been in the league for 8 years and never been healthy. He’s been in the league one year, and he played in 14 games, only got nicked up a little here or there, nothing to really worry about.

-Kevan Barlow. I’ll admit I’m not the biggest Barlow fan, but when the guy gets in the open, especially recieving, he has shown some ability. At the very least he is a solid/dependable back the team can rely on when he’s needed. It wouldn’t shock me if Seattle’s rushing leader, Mr. Alexander, averaged 3.2 YPC behind this line last year.

-Michael Robinson. As a third back? From what he’s been showing so far, he looks to have excellent speed and elusiveness. He’s a heck of a third option - and don’t even get me started on Hicks.

-The offensive line. Last years biggest weakness might very well be this years greatest strength. The addition of Larry Allen to go alongside a healthy Jennings, and a healthy Newberry make the left side of the line a brick wall. Add in the development of the rest of the line and you’ll have a heck of powerhouse up front - which would make Vikings running backs look like gods.

Eric Krupka - 1.) Alex Smith - The most important part of a good team is the quarterback position. Without a good man behind center, a franchise will go nowhere. Alex Smith is part of the inexperience, and will be like an anchor for a boat which holds the team down. In limited time last year as a rookie, the 2005 No. 1 overall pick was awful.

1 - Alright, if you want to pretend like your an analyst, try to throw away a lot of phrases that reference “last year” - ESPECIALLY for rookies - MOST ESPECIALLY for rookie quarterbacks. The NFL is such a fluid sports league that teams that go 4-12 one year often go 12-4 the next. So really, what good does LAST YEAR do for you if you want to tell us how things are going to be this year? Its the so called “analysis” from people like you that told us the Chargers would be aweful in 2004, the Eagles were NFC favorites and the Chicago Bears wouldn’t win 3 games in 2005.

If you evaluate what has changed about last year, you will feel a lot more comfortable with Alex Smith. First, he was 21 years old and probably more green than any rookie QB in recent memory. He was overwhelmed by the speed of the game, he had an inept offensive coordinator, no dependable recievers, an anemic running game, and no offensive line.

This year, things are clicking - and everyone is saying it. He has a proven coordinator in Norv Turner, he has a year under his belt, the game OBVIOUSLY slowed down for him at the end of last year in the final several games, he has a skilled reciever in Antonio Bryant and a big strong fast tight end in Vernon Davis, and has a drastically improved line behind him. Most importantly he has a military work ethic, and has been working tirelessly in the offseason improving himself and working on chemistry with Bryant. His mind should be in better shape, he’s gained some muscle, he has more weapons and his development should come along at a much more noticable pace this year.

And never forget what his coach in college (Urban Meyer) said: “when Alex first starts in a new system at a new level, he is terrible until he understands it. Once he does, watch out, because he’ll pick you apart”. He’s been at this level for a year now. Watch out.

I’m not saying he’s going to go to the pro bowl, but if you think his season will in any way resemble last years, you should stop calling yourself an analyst.