Why Crabtree’s Gamble Won’t Pay Off

I know every 49er faithful hates Michael Crabtree right now; he hasn’t earned anything less. When a 22 year old who left college early doesn’t think $16 million guaranteed isn’t enough, he won’t be anyone’s favorite person. It is ridiculous to watch year after year, a rookie holdout for more money because they feel they are entitled to it. When a rookie makes more money than a five year veteran, something is wrong. It is a broken system the NFL has, and Crabtree is merely trying to take advantage of it. I understand that part. What I don’t understand is the logic behind sitting out an entire season in hopes of getting picked higher than 10. Here’s why his plan won’t work:

1) He’ll have been out of football for an entire year. His last season of playing full-on football ended with foot surgery. Can you really see teams lining up to use a top pick on a wide receiver who hasn’t played football for a year after foot surgery? I’ve got some bad news for Michael Moneytree, Matt Millen isn’t the General Manager for the Lions anymore. His Mike Williams experiment exploded in his face and should have cost him his job. Another wild card would be Crazy Al Davis, but he already had a chance to draft Crabtree and passed. And a player’s value only goes down after missing a year of football. The only other owner I can envision gambling on Crabtree is Jerry Jones. Jones has a reputation of being arrogant and would take a chance on the Texas native. However, the Cowboys aren’t likely to have a high first round pick. Which brings me to point number two.

2) The number 10 pick usually makes a little more than the number 11 pick, and a little less than the 9th. That makes sense right? After the top five is selected, and then the top 10, and Michael Crabtree is still on the board, teams will want a player who they know they can sign. If Crabtree didn’t take number 10 money last year, why would he take number 15 money this year? Owners and GM’s already witnessed a young man’s greed and think, “We can’t draft him, he’ll want Tim Tebow money.”

3) Matt Leinart refused his deal when he fell to the Cardinals at 10. He did have the sense to sign when Denny Green publicly lashed out at him. It may be his opinion to think he should have gone higher, therefore gotten paid more, but the he didn’t. It’s just stupid to believe you should get paid more just because you think you should have been picked higher. The team gets a deal because there were concerns, and they aren’t going to pay more than what they are willing to give.

4) Owners will stick together. They can either use this situation as a good example or a bad example. If Crabtree sits out and gets more money next year, every other rookie will see there is a way to get more money. Every unsatisfied rookie will threaten to sit out and get paid more the following year. Or, the owners can make sure Crabtree gets what he deserves. He could be drafted even later than the first round, say the second or third. His peers will see the owners will not cave. Instead of $16 million dollars, the new offer will looking more like $1.6 million guaranteed. Team owners will not give rookies any power. Sitting out is the only leverage the rookies have, and this will only prove it isn’t any real leverage at all.

There have been rumblings about the 49ers lowering their offer and will continue to do so every week. I’m glad to hear Scot McCloughan isn’t a total idiot. If the 49ers were really petty (and hilarious), they could draft Crabtree every year with no intentions of signing him. How funny would that be? Then to make money, the former athlete who only prepared for football after college, will have to find a real job and know the feeling of wishing for $16 million dollars.

I have been a 49ers fan my entire life and will continue to be one long after I'm dead. My plan for the afterlife is to haunt the Dallas Cowboys and ensure they will never win another Super Bowl. My favorite 49er of all time is Steve Young, and my favorite current 49er would probably be Alex Smith. (I take a lot of sh** for that, even from Niner fans.).
  • New Mexico 49er Fan

    Well Mr. Moneytree are you just going to sit on your butt or are you going to get out and prove to the world you can run? The 49ers started out with a big win and you can still be part of a great team. It is all up to you and get the nick name Moneytree gone and be WR Crabtree 49er.

    • Mosie

      Here, here!! Very well said! You know, Moneytree is going to look back at this time eventually. Will he regret not being part of a great team on the rise, all because of greed?

      Sad really…

      I think the 9er’s should drop the offer $1Mil every week. You wanna play chicken at those prices??

  • http://www.obituarieshelp.org wendell

    i agree with every point except for one:

    4) Owners will stick together….

    if any owner in the nfl has a chance to sign a player they deem to be a positive impact for their team, they're going to make an effort to sign the player regardless of the moral lesson. i wish the owners would bond together to ensure that crabtree isn't drafted until the fifth round but i don't think it's going to happen.

    the reality is that there are better receivers that are going to be drafted next year that will have a chance to be evaluated at the combine. why take a chance on a difficult player that has an obtuse agent when we can sign dez bryant playing for ou now?

    michael is dead in the water until the beginning of the draft next year with the exception of the niners trading him.

  • Eric

    Well said! There are a few baseball players who pulled this sh*t over the years… google it and see what happened… it’s pretty funny… 9ers need to drop their price $1M every week he doesn’t sign…. end of conversation

  • dosia510

    hey jarrod, dont u think the niners will trade his rights before the draft? so they get at least something for him?

    • Jarrod

      I don't think trading his rights is an option. Moneytree has no problems being on the 49ers (at least I don't think so). His beef lies with the money. So they'd have to trade him to a team willing to pay him more than Darius Heyward-Bay. And that falls under reason 4, teams not wanting to give rookies power. Teams don't want other players to see threatening to sit out for more money works.

  • http://www.frickzpicz.com Fricker

    Your whole article is on point except 1 part. That is in next years draft the 49ers are the only team that are not allowed to re-draft Crabtree.. if a team is unable to sign a player after having them for a season, NFL rule states they are not allowed to draft him in the following season.

    • Jarrod

      I admit I didn’t know about this rule, but I really meant it as a joke. But thanks for letting us know about it.

  • Jerome

    What would be funny is if ever team would draft him and trade him to the 49ers every year for their 1st round pick. Because of this and the money nobody wants to pick in the top 10 anyway

  • http://www.savage.com Mahroze

    Great Article Jarrod…. for once in my life, I agreed with you completely! ;)… It just doesnt make any sense to me what he is thinking… He was drafted where he was drafted…and he got offered a fair price for his draft position…. I dont know what he is thinking if he thinks he is going to be drafted higher next year and get the money he thinks he deserves! Love your artiles btw J-Pop! :)